Festive Jewellery Sales: Value Growth Amid High Prices

India’s jewellery market is entering the festive season with cautious optimism. Jewellers anticipate growth in value terms even as elevated gold and silver prices continue to restrain sales volumes. While larger, trusted brands are expected to benefit from the shift in consumer preference, smaller players face mounting pressure.

A Season of Selective Buying

Festive periods such as Ganesh Chaturthi traditionally drive jewellery purchases across India. This year, the pattern is more nuanced. Consumers are still buying, but many are adjusting the size, weight and type of jewellery they choose. High prices have turned what was once a routine purchase into a more considered decision.

Harshita Rane, a 58-year-old homemaker shopping in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazar, captured the mood of many buyers. She had delayed purchasing a gold pendant for her daughter until prices eased slightly and the auspicious occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi arrived. Her experience reflects a broader trend: intent remains, but timing and ticket size have become more carefully managed.

Value Growth Expected to Offset Volume Pressure

Industry voices largely agree that overall sales value should hold up or improve, even if the quantity of gold sold in kilograms declines. Colin Shah, Managing Director at Kama Jewelry, expects festive demand to remain strong. He anticipates that volumes may fall by around 10-15 per cent because of high prices, but higher realisations should compensate for the shortfall and still deliver growth.

Aditya Modak of PNGS Reva Diamonds similarly projects healthy high-single-digit to low-double-digit growth in value terms, with more moderate volume growth. He notes that consumers are not necessarily postponing purchases; instead, they are seeking greater design value within a comfortable budget.

Prithviraj Kothari, President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, has observed early positive signs during Ganesh Chaturthi, with improved footfall and interest in both auspicious purchases and lightweight everyday pieces. Some estimates point to a possible 15-20 per cent year-on-year volume recovery from a subdued first half, though this would still trail the stronger demand levels seen before the sharp rise in gold prices.

How High Prices Are Changing What People Buy

Gold prices had surged dramatically earlier in 2026, reaching levels around Rs 2.3 lakh per 10 grams at their peak before easing to the region of Rs 1.5 lakh. Even after the correction, prices remain significantly higher than in previous years. This has altered buying behaviour in several ways.

Customers are increasingly opting for lighter-weight pieces and lower-carat jewellery. Old-gold exchanges have become more common, allowing buyers to upgrade or refresh their jewellery without paying the full current price for new metal. Silver is also attracting greater attention as a more affordable alternative for gifts and festive items.

These adaptations help sustain the cultural importance of jewellery during festivals and weddings while keeping individual transactions within reach for a larger number of households.

Larger Brands Gain, Smaller Players Struggle

The high-price environment is accelerating a longer-term shift towards organised retail. Customers facing elevated metal prices show a stronger preference for established brands that offer transparency, trust, design variety and, in some cases, more competitive making charges or exchange schemes.

Larger chains have the scale to manage inventory, offer discounts and absorb volatility more effectively. Smaller independent jewellers, particularly those operating with limited cash flow, find it harder to match these advantages. Many report that regular customers have become less frequent, forcing them to innovate with lower-weight designs, studded pieces and alternative products. Such adaptation, however, often requires capital that smaller businesses may lack.

As one small jeweller in Zaveri Bazar noted, the combination of high metal prices, the need to pay craftsmen and workers, and the inability to offer deep discounts creates a difficult operating environment.

The Broader Market Context

Jewellery has increasingly become an occasional, higher-ticket purchase rather than a frequent one. In this setting, brand trust and perceived value matter more. Organised retailers continue to expand their share of the market, a trend that high prices appear to be reinforcing.

At the same time, the festive and wedding calendar remains a powerful driver. Cultural and emotional reasons for buying jewellery have not disappeared; they have simply been filtered through a more price-conscious lens. Exchange programmes, flexible payment options and design-focused lighter jewellery are helping bridge the gap between tradition and affordability.

What Lies Ahead

The coming weeks will test how durable the early festive recovery proves to be. If gold prices remain relatively stable or ease further, volume recovery could strengthen. A renewed sharp rise, however, would likely deepen the preference for lighter pieces and exchanges while putting additional strain on smaller retailers.

For the industry as a whole, the season is expected to deliver value growth even if physical volumes stay moderate. The benefits, though, are unlikely to be evenly distributed. Larger, well-capitalised brands are better positioned to convert cautious demand into higher realisations. Smaller players will need agility, design innovation and careful cost management to remain competitive.

In Zaveri Bazar and similar markets across the country, the festive lights are on and customers are walking in. They are buying, but they are buying differently. That difference—between value and volume, between big brands and small shops—will define how much cheer this festive season ultimately brings to every part of India’s jewellery trade.

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